![]() ![]() The report states that written answers provided by Trump were unhelpful.The report does not flatly state that President Trump obstructed justice.The report flatly states that the Russian interference benefitted President Trump.The report flatly states the Russians did, in fact, interfere in the 2016 election.The report suggests that Trump accepted Russian assistance.The report does NOT suggest the President be impeached/removed.The report does not suggest the President should be charged after leaving office.The report does not charge the President.The report does NOT exonerate the President.That fact notwithstanding, given the recent Mueller testimony before two Congressional committees, let’s look at what we have learned about the investigation of the special counsel and subsequent report: I simply cannot fathom how, given the change in the first two options, that the third option listed above has changed in the opposite way. I believe there is a very good chance he will lose reelection, but I would be extremely surprised if that would cause him to resign with just over two months on the clock. Remarkably, the implied probability that he will complete his first term has dropped 2% for reasons that are entirely beyond my comprehension. The implied probability that he will be in office at the end of this year, which is still entirely too low, has risen 2% to 0.92 on the binary. Given the events of the last few months, the implied probability of Trump’s being impeached, which is still entirely too high, has dropped by 3%. The first thing that we are going to do is take a look at how the odds as of this writing compare to the recent article linked above: Proposition Why a little bit? Well, because the case against was looking pretty strong already. I have written other, more similar, articles both here and over at LCB, so I welcome anyone to search for those or PM me if you would like links.įor those reasons, we’re not going to get into the math of the whole thing so much as my opinion that nothing has changed, except the case AGAINST Trump being removed from office looks a little bit stronger. In that article, I also detailed how can be used, as well as the calculations of the fees (for winning and/or cashing out) for both those depositing into PredictIt and those with money on the site already. ![]() ![]() Very recently, I wrote about the betting prospects as relates President Trump’s impeachment, removal from office, winning the Republican nomination and winning the 2020 General Presidential Election here. ![]()
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